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10 главных тенденций на столичном рынке новостроек
фото: Геннадий Черкасов
По итогам первого полугодия на первичном рынке Москвы в «старых» границах зафиксирован новый рекорд: девелоперы предложили покупателям 2,84 млн кв. м. По мнению специалистов, к концу года рынок преодолеет отметку 3 млн кв. м.
Больше всего, на 21,4%, в январе–июне выросла доля предложения в массовом сегменте: продажи стартовали в 18 новых проектах. В структуре предложения по административным округам лидирующую позицию по-прежнему занимает ЮВАО (25,0%). Здесь стартовали продажи в Лефортове, Люблине, Рязанском. Второе место сохранилось за ЮАО (17,2%). Новые квартиры предлагались в Царицыне, Нагатино-Садовники, Орехове-Борисове Южном, Чертанове Южном. Третье место разделили СВАО (13,3%, Отрадное, Лианозово) и ЗАО. При этом максимальный прирост предложения отмечен в ВАО — доля округа увеличилась на 3,3 п.п., до 6,3%, благодаря новым проектам в Вешняках и Гольянове.
Рекорд связан с высокой активностью застройщиков. «В первом квартале девелоперы вели в основном сдержанную политику, за это время вышло всего 9 проектов, в то время как во втором квартале — 22 объекта. Это связано с тем, что в начале года была еще не совсем понятна ситуация на рынке ипотечного кредитования в связи с отменой программы господдержки. Но первые месяцы показали, что банки снижают ставки, покупательский спрос стабилен, и девелоперы стали смело выводить новые проекты», — сообщила гендиректор компании «МИЭЛЬ-Новостройки» Наталья Шаталина.
Первое полугодие также ознаменовалось активным выходом не только крупных проектов, но и точечного предложения, порой в формате клубных домов: из 31 нового проекта сразу 19 относится к точечному предложению. В 2016 году подобные проекты популярностью не пользовались. Покупателям, уставшим от высокой плотности проживания, этот формат также интересен, но, безусловно, при грамотной ценовой политике.
Наиболее заметно растет доля квартир в панельных новостройках: с начала текущего года в этом сегменте объем предложения увеличился с 263 тыс. до 317 тыс. кв. м. В некоторых проектах, как, например, в Орехове-Борисове, девелоперы сделали на них ставку. «Вполне логично, что застройщики обращают свой взгляд на панельное домостроение, так как для покупателей сейчас одним из главных факторов при принятии решения о покупке становится стадия строительной готовности объекта. Именно панельные новостройки возводятся в максимально короткие сроки. К тому же при осваивании крупных площадок застройщики стараются использовать смешанный тип домостроения, выпуская как панельные, так и монолитные корпуса», — объясняет Шаталина.
Эксперты зафиксировали новый трехлетний минимум по цене. Особенно заметно во втором квартале цены отступили в секторе от ТТК до МКАД. По данным «ИРН-Консалтинг», в июне средняя стоимость метра в этом секторе составила 197 300 руб., что на 2,5% ниже, чем в марте, а средняя стоимость квартиры — 13,2 млн против 13,6 млн руб. Отрицательная динамика средней цены метра (от -2,4 до -1,2%) отмечалась во всех сегментах.
При этом выросли цены экономкласса на фоне снижения других сегментов. В конце прошлого года средневзвешенная цена в экономклассе составляла 115 тыс. руб. за 1 кв. м, сейчас она выросла до 116,2 тыс. руб. за 1 кв. м.
Конечно, наибольший интерес для покупателей представляют новые квартиры в недорогих домах. В минувшем июне средняя цена на рынке новостроек массового сегмента составила 148 340 руб. за 1 кв. м. За шесть месяцев она выросла на 1%. Жилье экономкласса дорожало во всех округах, кроме ВАО и ЗАО. Больше всего с начала года прибавили в цене — сразу на 11% — «квадраты» в САО. В июне средний бюджет квартиры в сегменте составил 8,43 млн руб. (+0,8% к декабрю 2016 г.). Заметнее всего подорожали студии (+1,0%) и трехкомнатные лоты (+1,1%).
А вот в бизнес-классе бюджет покупки продолжает снижаться: 1 кв. м за 6 месяцев подешевел с 249,6 тыс. до 244,7 тыс. руб., а средний чек сделки — с 19 млн до 18,5 млн руб. По мнению риелторов, бизнес-класс продолжает демократизироваться, в том числе за счет снижения площадей предложения. В первом полугодии минимальный бюджет покупки в этом сегменте уже преодолел порог в 4 млн руб., снизившись до 3,9 млн руб. Как пояснили в компании «БЕСТ-Новострой», в январе–июне в Белокаменной резко увеличилось предложение квартир бизнес-класса.
«Всего на столичном первичном рынке жилой недвижимости предлагается 185 корпусов в 92 проектах бизнес-класса. В предложении представлено 14 тыс. квартир, — сообщила руководитель АКЦ Est-a-Tet Юлия Сапор. — На фоне активного пополнения новыми проектами и объемами в уже реализуемых комплексах отмечается рост суммарной площади объектов: впервые объем предложения сегмента превысил показатель 1 млн кв. м». Наиболее популярны лоты стоимостью от 10 млн до 14,9 млн руб. — их доля составляет 29,1%.
Еще одна тенденция — высокий покупательский спрос. По данным Росреестра, за 5 месяцев текущего года в Москве (включая присоединенные территории) было заключено 19 759 договоров долевого участия, а за аналогичный период прошлого года — 11 628 ДДУ. Таким образом, рост составил порядка 70%. Наиболее активно сделки заключались в марте и апреле. Добавим, что в этом году на столичный первичный рынок вернулась сезонность, что свидетельствует о наступлении баланса.
Спрос между проектами размывается, признают специалисты. Конкуренция растет, что влияет на ценовую динамику. Новые проекты, корпуса, объемы продолжают выходить с дисконтом к рынку. В результате, несмотря на повышение цен в успешных проектах, средний ценовой показатель остается относительно стабильным.
Кроме этого граждане все охотнее берут ипотечные кредиты. Первое полугодие показало, что отмена льготной ипотеки практически не повлияла на покупательский спрос. Ключевая ставка была снижена уже 3 раза, что позволило банкам в свою очередь снизить ставки по стандартным программам. Сейчас средний размер ставок составляет 11%, в то время как можно найти предложения от 10–10,5%. По оценке Натальи Шаталиной, доля ипотечных сделок составляет 47% в общей структуре, а во втором полугодии можно ожидать еще более высокого показателя. Если в первом квартале доля ипотечных сделок не превышала 42%, то во втором квартале уже не опускалась ниже 53%.
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