Новогодние горки нацвалюты: утонет в проруби или взлетит на трамплине
фото: Наталья Мущинкина
Январь начался с курса 59,6 за доллар, а декабрь завершился показателем 58,6. И это притом, что нефть тогда стоила $55–62 за доллар. В нынешнем году курс постоянно скакал, колеблясь в диапазоне от 58 до 68 рублей за доллар и от 69 до 79 — за евро. Хотя нефть большую часть года уверенно росла — с $64 до $80 за баррель, и лишь с середины октября скатилась назад, к $60. И вот осталось пройти последний месяц года, который, собственно, и покажет: рухнет курс в прорубь или взлетит, как на трамплине.
Надо сказать, декабрь приготовил рублю, словно сказочному герою, целую россыпь испытаний. Первое из них может случиться уже в понедельник, 3 декабря, когда валютный рынок начнет «переваривать» политические итоги саммита «большой двадцатки» в Буэнос-Айресе. И не факт, что эти итоги будет истрактованы биржевыми игроками в пользу России и ее нацвалюты.
Не успеет рубль перевести дух, как в середине недели грядет большой саммит ОПЕК и примкнувших стран — экспортеров нефти. Там будет решаться судьба знаменитого соглашения ОПЕК+ о сокращении добычи нефти, и, соответственно, станет понятно, смогут ли участники остановить падающий вот уже полтора месяца баррель. Ну а о том, как зависит рубль от цены нефти, в нашей стране знают даже дети. Если, не дай бог, нефтяные страны с участием России не договорятся, можно смело предсказывать новое падение «деревянного».
В середине месяца в большую валютную игру вступают центробанки. На 14 декабря намечено последнее в этом году заседание совета директоров Банка России с вопросом о ключевой ставке, на 19 е — заседание ФРС США с аналогичным вопросом по ставке американской. Велика вероятность, что американцы свою повысят, что поднимет акции доллара во всем мире и спровоцирует отток капитала с развитых рынков, включая Россию. А все это вместе — новый удар по рублю.
На этом список возможных неприятностей для российской нацвалюты отнюдь не заканчивается. Ведь именно на декабрь приходится пик выплат по внешнему долгу отечественных компаний и банков— $8 млрд., в два раза больше, чем было в ноябре. То есть эти самые компании и банки начнут на открытом рынке активно покупать доллары и продавать рубли, подрывая заодно и курс российских дензнаков.
А еще есть угроза заокеанских санкций. Активизация риторики американских политических деятелей, даже при отсутствии реальных шагов, вполне способна напугать иностранных инвесторов, которые до сих пор контролируют четверть рублевого госзайма. Если они ударятся в бега и начнут сбывать свои бумаги, это приведет к наводнению финансового рынка рублями и новому ослаблению курса российской нацвалюты. Аналогичная реакция может последовать при любом витке геополитической напряженности — хоть с Украиной, хоть с Сирией и далее везде…
К этому стоит добавить, что доллар традиционно под Рождество повышается за счет бурной циклической активности международных интернет-магазинов. А вот у рубля прямо противоположная традиция, его курс к концу декабря всегда ослабляется: ведь у биржевиков наступают длинные новогодние каникулы, и они сразу «роняют» рубль на две недели вперед.
Тем не менее герой русских народных сказок, как известно, все препятствия преодолевал, со всеми трудностями справлялся и в конце концов получал свою царевну и полцарства в придачу. В принципе, сказочный сюжет для рубля — когда по итогам декабря его курс окажется крепче ноябрьского — совсем уж не исключен. И нефть, и геополитика, и решения центробанков могут сложиться в его пользу. Но вероятность того, что на этих предновогодних горках он все-таки поскользнется и упадет, эксперты оценивают гораздо выше. Слишком уж много впереди препятствий и слишком они сложные для нашего «деревянного» героя.
Большинство прогнозистов считает, что к началу 2019 года рубль потеряет 5–10% своей стоимости по сравнению с ноябрьским уровнем. Это значит, что год Свиньи мы начнем с долларом за 70 и с евро за 80.
What’s up to all, the contents present at this web page are really awesome
for people experience, well, keep up the good work fellows.
I don’t even know how I ended up here, but I thought this post was good.
I do not know who you are but definitely you’re going to a famous blogger if you are not already 😉
Cheers!
My webpage :: email marketing
I real pleased to find this site on bing, just what I was looking for :
D also saved to my bookmarks.
my blog – http://www.aniene.net
Hello friends, how is the whole thing, and what
you would like to say concerning this article, in my view its actually remarkable in support of me.
Feel free to surf to my webpage; prettypeople.club
Hey There. I discovered your blog the usage of msn. That is a really well written article.
I’ll make sure to bookmark it and come back to learn extra of
your useful info. Thank you for the post. I’ll certainly return.
Hello, I believe your website could possibly be having browser compatibility issues.
When I look at your site in Safari, it looks
fine however, if opening in IE, it’s got some overlapping issues.
I simply wanted to provide you with a quick heads up! Aside from that, fantastic blog!
Also visit my web blog: smoking and teens
Thanks for every one of your work on this site.
My mom loves conducting internet research and it is easy to understand why.
Almost all notice all relating to the powerful means you present vital secrets through the website and as well
cause participation from visitors about this concern while our girl has
always been starting to learn a whole lot.
Have fun with the remaining portion of the new year. You have been doing
a stunning job.[X-N-E-W-L-I-N-S-P-I-N-X]I am really inspired
together with your writing talents and also with the layout on your blog.
Is this a paid topic or did you modify it your self?
Anyway stay up the excellent high quality writing,
it’s rare to see a nice blog like this one today.
Also visit my homepage – drug crime attorney
Some truly nice stuff on this web site, I enjoy it.
Take a look at my web site – choosing skincare products
It is perfect time to make some plans for the future and it
is time to be happy. I have read this post and
if I could I wish to suggest you few interesting things or suggestions.
Maybe you could write next articles referring to this article.
I want to read even more things about it!
Also visit my web page – Frankie
Touche. Sound arguments. Keep up the good effort.
Feel free to visit my web-site … https://www.mhes.tyc.edu.tw
I want examining and I think this website got some genuinely utilitarian stuff on it!
My web site … headphones review
I’m now not sure the place you’re getting your info, but good skin care
topic. I needs to spend a while studying much more or
figuring out more. Thanks for fantastic information I used to be in search of this info for my mission.
I read this post completely regarding the resemblance of most up-to-date and earlier technologies, it’s remarkable article.
Here is my blog :: sex life
My brother recommended I might like this blog. He was entirely right.
This post truly made my day. You can not imagine just how much time I had spent
for this info! Thanks!
Feel free to surf to my webpage; sex help
You made some good points there. I did a search on the subject matter and found most persons will agree with
your site.
my page – hair regrowth treatment
I want foregathering utile information, this post has got me
even more info!
Here is my page :: http://www.a913.vip
I always used to read piece of writing in news papers but now as I am a user of internet thus from now I am
using net for posts, thanks to web.
my web-site :: weed indoorshave
I like the helpful info you provide in your articles.
I’ll bookmark your weblog and check again here regularly.
I am quite certain I will learn lots of new stuff right here!
Good luck for the next!
My homepage care personal skin
Thank you for your site post. Jones and
I are actually saving to buy a new book on this matter and
your blog post has made all of us to save our money.
Your thoughts really resolved all our questions.
In fact, greater than what we had thought of ahead of the time we found your excellent blog.
My spouse and i no longer nurture doubts and also a troubled mind because
you have clearly attended to our own needs in this article.
Thanks
my webpage – Charlotte
Very energetic blog, I enjoyed that a lot. Will there be a part 2?
Feel free to visit my website :: cannabis license maybe
Very well written story. It will be valuable to anyone who usess it, including yours truly :
). Keep doing what you are doing – can’r wait to read more posts.
Feel free to surf to my web blog :: http://www.leyi.la/thread-170388-1-1.html
Hello! I could have sworn I’ve visited this blog before but after
going through many of the posts I realized it’s new to me.
Anyways, I’m definitely happy I stumbled upon it and I’ll be book-marking
it and checking back frequently!
Also visit my web site prescription drug abuse
Good day! Do you know if they make any plugins
to help with Search Engine Optimization? I’m trying to get my blog to rank for some targeted keywords but I’m not seeing very good gains.
If you know of any please share. Cheers!
Feel free to visit my homepage; http://www.aniene.net
We wish to thank you just as before for the beautiful ideas you gave Jeremy when preparing her own post-graduate research and also,
most importantly, for providing many of the ideas in one blog post.
Provided we had been aware of your site a year ago, we’d have been rescued from the nonessential measures we were employing.
Thank you very much.
Also visit my page – personal cannabis seeds
Do you have any video of that? I’d want to find out some additional information.
Here is my website: buy seeds online
This is a good tip particularly to those new to the blogosphere.
Simple but very accurate information… Thank you for sharing this one.
A must read article!
Feel free to surf to my site; omega 3 fatty acids
Does your blog have a contact page? I’m having a tough
time locating it but, I’d like to shoot you an email.
I’ve got some recommendations for your blog you might be
interested in hearing. Either way, great website and I look forward to seeing it develop over time.
Here is my blog post … psychedelic drug
Wow that was odd. I just wrote an extremely long comment but after I clicked submit my comment didn’t appear.
Grrrr… well I’m not writing all that over again. Anyway, just wanted to say fantastic blog!
Feel free to surf to my site – eradicates eczema
I’m extremely impressed together with your writing skills and also
with the layout in your weblog. Is that this a paid subject matter or did you modify it your self?
Anyway stay up the excellent high quality writing, it’s rare to look a nice blog like this one today..
Feel free to surf to my webpage; http://forum.m2clasic.ro/viewtopic.php?id=255680
Hi Dear, are you genuinely visiting this web site on a regular basis, if so afterward you will without
doubt obtain good knowledge.
Also visit my blog post :: yeast infection
I really like your blog.. very nice colors & theme.
Did you design this website yourself or did you hire someone to do it for you?
Plz answer back as I’m looking to design my own blog and would like to
know where u got this from. thanks a lot
Feel free to surf to my page; weight loss program
Nice blog here! Also your site loads up fast! What host are you using?
Can I get your affiliate link to your host? I wish my site loaded up
as quickly as yours lol
Here is my site :: hemp crop
You made some nice points there. I looked eczema on feet the
internet for the subject and found most individuals will agree with your website.
An interesting discussion is worth comment. I do think that you ought
to write more about this topic, it may not be a taboo matter but typically people don’t speak about these subjects.
To the next! Cheers!!
Here is my site :: indoor growing
My family members every time say that I am killing my time here at web, however I know I am getting know-how everyday by
reading thes fastidious articles or reviews.
Check out my blog: https://bbs.yunweishidai.com/
Very interesting details you have noted, thank you for putting up.
Also visit my blog post … oil pulling saves teeth
This is my first time go to see at here and i am really pleassant to read all
at single place.
Also visit my web-site … https://bbs.yunweishidai.com
This is a great tip especially to those new to the blogosphere.
Short but very accurate information… Appreciate your sharing this one.
A must read article!
Also visit my web blog … http://39.98.110.214
I like it when people get together and share views.
Great site, continue the good work!
my homepage 23.95.102.216
I think other website proprietors should take this site as
an model, very clean and wonderful user friendly style and design, as well as the content.
You’re an expert in this topic!
Feel free to visit my web blog … indoor growing
Heya! I just wanted to ask if you ever have any problems with hackers?
My last blog (wordpress) was hacked and I ended up losing a few months of hard work due
to no back up. Do you have any solutions to protect against hackers?
Here is my blog post testosterone deficiency
Hi there! This is my first comment here so I just wanted to give a quick shout out and say I
genuinely enjoy reading through your blog posts. Can you recommend any other blogs/websites/forums
that go over the same topics? Thanks a lot!
Here is my blog; growing weed indoorshave
Hi my friend! I wish to say that this post is amazing,
great written and include approximately all significant infos.
I’d like to see more posts like this .
Visit my web-site airline travel
Howdy! I could have sworn I?ve visited this web site before but after looking at some of the
articles I realized it?s new to me. Regardless, I?m
certainly pleased I found it and I?ll be book-marking it and checking back regularly!
Feel free to surf to my website travels easier
Way cool! Some extremely valid points! I appreciate you writing this write-up plus the rest of the site is extremely good.
Here is my webpage; 23.95.102.216
Fantastic beat ! I wish to apprentice while you amend your web site, how can i
subscribe for a blog web site? The account helped me a acceptable deal.
I had been a little bit acquainted of this your broadcast offered bright
transparent idea
Feel free to visit my web page :: http://39.98.110.214/
I gotta bookmark this website it seems very useful very beneficial.
My webpage: weight loss results
I know this if off topic but I’m looking into starting my
own weblog and was curious what all is required to get
set up? I’m assuming having a blog like yours would cost
a pretty penny? I’m not very internet savvy so I’m not 100% certain.
Any tips or advice would be greatly appreciated.
Cheers
Take a look at my blog post – personal cannabis seeds
As I website possessor I believe the subject matter here is very excellent, regards for your efforts.
My page; skilled drug crime
I couldn?t resist commenting. Well written!
Review my website – getting treatment
What’s up all, here every person is sharing these kinds of
experience, so it’s good to read this weblog, and I used to pay a quick visit this weblog daily.
my web-site consulenzaleonardo.com
Simply to follow up on the up-date of this matter on your web-site and would want to let you know just how much I prized the time you took to write this beneficial post.
In the post, you really spoke regarding how to actually handle this matter
with all comfort. It would be my own pleasure to collect some more suggestions from
your website and come as much as offer others what I
have learned from you. Thank you for your usual fantastic effort.
Feel free to surf to my web site … ed pills
To follow up on the up-date of this subject on your web page and would want to let you know
how much I appreciated the time you took to generate this helpful post.
Within the post, you really spoke regarding how to really handle this matter with all comfort.
It would be my pleasure to get some more strategies from your web site and come up to
offer other people what I have benefited from you.
Thank you for your usual wonderful effort.
My page :: lower cholesterol information
I like this weblog very much, Its a very nice place to read and receive information.
Look at my web page http://www.diclelife.com
I am not real good with English but I get hold this really leisurely to translate.
Here is my blog: try lucid dreaming
Some truly nice and utilitarian info on this internet site, too I believe the pattern has great features.
my webpage :: ckd diet
With havin so much content and articles do you ever
run into any problems of plagorism or copyright infringement?
My website has a lot of exclusive content I’ve
either authored myself or outsourced but it seems a lot of it is popping it up all over the internet without my agreement.
Do you know any solutions to help protect against content from being ripped off?
I’d really appreciate it.
My homepage: drug abuse statistics
Hello, this weekend is good in favor of me, because this moment i am reading this wonderful informative article here at
my residence.
Feel free to surf to my web-site … best audio
I want to to thank you for this fantastic read!! I absolutely loved every little bit of it.
I have you saved as a favorite to look at new stuff you post?
my webpage: suitable hair
Hi, i think that i saw you visited my weblog so i came to go back the
choose?.I am trying to find things to enhance my web
site!I assume its ok to use a few of your ideas!!
Check out my blog – buy seeds online
Quality articles or reviews is the secret to interest the people to go to see the
site, that’s what this site is providing.
Feel free to visit my blog post dietrine customer revi
Loving the information on this site, you have done
outstanding job on the articles.
Here is my web site; ketogenic diet
Hi there, i read your blog from time to time and i own a similar one and i was just wondering if
you get a lot of spam feedback? If so how do you reduce it,
any plugin or anything you can advise? I get so much lately it’s driving me crazy so any support is
very much appreciated.
My blog – http://www.a913.vip
This web site definitely has all the info I needed concerning this subject and didn?t know who to ask.
Visit my homepage; 39.98.110.214
Merely to follow up on the up-date of this subject matter on your web site and would wish
to let you know how much I treasured the time you took to
put together this valuable post. Inside the post, you
spoke of how to definitely handle this concern with all ease.
It would be my personal pleasure to accumulate some
more thoughts from your web-site and come as much as offer people what I have learned
from you. Thank you for your usual good effort.
Also visit my web page – plansite.group
Write more, thats all I have to say. Literally, it seems as though you relied
on the video to make your point. You clearly know what youre talking about,
why waste your intelligence on just posting videos to your site
when you could be giving us something informative to read?
Here is my website … hoodia diet
Good day very nice web site!! Man .. Beautiful .. Wonderful ..
I’ll bookmark your site and take the feeds also…I’m happy to find numerous helpful information right
here within the put up, we’d like work out more techniques on this regard, thank you for sharing.
my blog post testosterone level
Paragraph writing is also a fun, if you know after that you can write or else it is
difficult to write.
My webpage :: natural libido pills
I’m impressed, I have to admit. Seldom do I encounter a
blog that’s both equally educative and interesting, and let me tell you, you
have hit the nail on the head. The issue is something that
not enough men and women are speaking intelligently
about. I’m very happy I came across this during
my hunt for something relating to this.
my blog post better marriage sex
Hi there, i read your blog from time to time and i
own a similar one and i was just wondering if you get a lot of spam remarks?
If so how do you protect against it, any plugin or anything you can suggest?
I get so much lately it’s driving me insane so any
assistance is very much appreciated.
Here is my website Samara
Hello! Do you use Twitter? I’d like to follow you if that would be okay.
I’m definitely enjoying your blog and look forward to new posts.
my web blog :: http://www.aniene.net/modules.php?name=Your_Account&op=userinfo&username=BlanchetteFatima
Wonderful paintings! That is the kind of info that should
be shared across the internet. Shame on Google for now not positioning this post higher!
Come on over and talk over with my website . Thanks =)
Feel free to visit my web blog how to improve love making
Right away I am going to do my breakfast, once having my breakfast coming over
again to read additional news.
my web-site cholesterol information lower cholesterol information lower cholestero
When someone writes an article he/she maintains the thought of a user
in his/her mind that how a user can understand it. Therefore
that’s why this piece of writing is perfect. Thanks!
Here is my web blog :: http://www.a913.vip
Some truly terrific work on behalf of the owner of this internet site, absolutely
outstanding subject matter.
Have a look at my web page … natural yeast infection treatment
I adore foregathering utile information, this post has got
me even more info!
Here is my blog: forum.chrisricard.net
Hi there colleagues, how is all, and what you would like to
say about this piece of writing, in my view its actually
awesome in support of me.
Feel free to surf to my webpage http://www.comptine.biz
Hey I know this is off topic but I was wondering if you knew of any widgets I could add to my blog
that automatically tweet my newest twitter updates.
I’ve been looking for a plug-in like this for quite some time and was
hoping maybe you would have some experience with something like
this. Please let me know if you run into anything.
I truly enjoy reading your blog and I look forward to your
new updates.
Look into my homepage small seeds
Hey, I think your blog might be having browser compatibility issues.
When I look at your website in Firefox, it looks fine but when opening in Internet Explorer, it has some
overlapping. I just wanted to give you a quick heads up!
Other then that, superb blog!
My blog post hair follicle
Unquestionably consider that that you said. Your favourite reason appeared to be at the web
the easiest thing to take into accout of. I say to
you, I certainly get annoyed whilst other folks think
about issues that they just don’t recognize about.
You controlled to hit the nail upon the highest and outlined out the whole thing with no need side-effects ,
people could take a signal. Will probably be
again to get more. Thanks!
my web-site … Meri
Definitely consider that that you said. Your
favorite justification appeared to be on the web the simplest thing to consider of.
I say to you, I definitely get irked while other people consider concerns that they just don’t
realize about. You managed to hit the nail
upon the top as smartly as defined out the whole thing with no need side-effects , people could take a signal.
Will probably be again to get more. Thanks
My site :: http://www.a913.vip
Greetings! Very helpful advice within this article!
It’s the little changes that produce the greatest changes.
Many thanks for sharing!
Here is my web-site: moisturize your skin
This is the perfect web site for everyone who would like to find out about this topic.
You realize a whole lot its almost tough to argue with you (not that I actually would want
how to lose weight?HaHa).
You certainly put a brand new spin on a topic which has been written about for
a long time. Excellent stuff, just great!
I adore assembling utile information, this post has got me even more info!
My page cholesterol diets
Wow, this article is pleasant, my younger sister is analyzing these kinds of things, thus I
am going to tell her.
my website: term treatment process
Very interesting details you have mentioned, regards for putting up.
Feel free to visit my web-site: try hemp
I would like to thank you for the efforts you’ve put in penning
this blog. I really hope to see the same high-grade blog posts from you later on as well.
In truth, your creative writing abilities has inspired me to get my
own site now 😉
Here is my blog post cycling diet
whoah this blog is great i like studying your posts.
Stay up the great work! You understand, many persons are searching round for this
info, you could aid them greatly.
Here is my web site :: hemp seed
I do not even know the way I ended up here,
but I thought this publish used to be great. I do not understand who
you are however certainly you are going to a well-known blogger
in the event you aren’t already 😉 Cheers!
My blog; healthy eating pyramid
You have noted very interesting details! ps decent website.
My page; concerned hemp
I like it when folks come together and share views. Great blog,
stick with it!
Check out my page … boost libido
Hey, you used to write fantastic, but the last several posts have been kinda boring…
I miss your great writings. Past few posts are just a little out of track!
come on!
Visit my webpage … libido enhancement in men
I happen to be writing to let you understand what a fine experience our child went through viewing the blog.
She noticed a wide variety of issues, most notably what
it’s like to have an awesome teaching heart to make the rest clearly know selected complex issues.
You truly exceeded readers’ expected results. I appreciate you for presenting such good, dependable, edifying and
in addition fun tips about that topic to Lizeth.
my homepage :: Bernadette
My partner and I absolutely love your blog and find the
majority of your post’s to be exactly I’m looking for.
Does one offer guest writers to write content for you?
I wouldn’t mind composing a post or elaborating on many of the subjects you write concerning here.
Again, awesome weblog!
my web site :: natural skin care tips
It’s remarkable to visit this website diet and weight loss tips
reading the views of all mates on the topic of this piece of writing, while I am also eager of getting knowledge.
WOW just what I was looking for. Came here by searching for foods rich in omega 3 fatty acids
my web page: Sadye
Hello There. I found your blog using msn. This is an extremely well written article.
I’ll be sure to bookmark it and come back to read
more of your useful info. Thanks for the post. I’ll definitely comeback.
Feel free to visit my blog post; weed doctor
Wow, fantastic weblog format! How long have you been blogging for?
you make running a blog look easy. The entire look of your site is great, as smartly as the content![X-N-E-W-L-I-N-S-P-I-N-X]I simply couldn’t leave your web site prior to suggesting that
I really loved the standard information an individual supply to your guests?
Is gonna be again incessantly to check up on new posts.
Review my blog: https://www.mhes.tyc.edu.tw/
Very soon this site will be famous amid all blogging viewers, due
to it’s pleasant content
Also visit my web site; forum.vkmoravia.cz
What’s up friends, fastidious piece of writing and nice arguments commented
at this place, I am really enjoying by these.
Feel free to visit my blog post; Arnold
I’m truly enjoying the design and layout of your blog.
It’s a very easy on the eyes which makes it much more pleasant for
me to come here and visit more often. Did you hire out a developer to
create your theme? Fantastic work!
Feel free to visit my web blog – stop smoking
Nice read, I just passed this onto a friend who was doing some research on that.
And he actually bought me lunch because I found it for him smile So let
me rephrase that: Thanks for lunch!
Stop by my web site: healthy body
I truly enjoy reading on this web site, it contains superb content.
Look into my blog post; belly busting supplements
Hello, i think that i saw you visited my site so i came to return the desire?.I am trying to find issues to enhance my website!I suppose its adequate to use some of your concepts!!
Feel free to surf to my page: http://forum.vkmoravia.cz/