Власть защищает доллар, а не рубль
фото: Геннадий Черкасов
Впрочем, возврат в тот мир хоть и кажется привлекательным, но на деле выглядит утопией. Санкции из словесной перепалки грозят превратиться в экономический Армагеддон, а дорогая нефть, всего за полтора месяца подорожавшая на $15, не внушает уверенности в счастливом будущем. Легче всего опять спустить всех собак на заокеанских злопыхателей. Только если зрить в корень, то причины невзгод кроются не за океаном, а на просторах отчизны. Главным образом в государственных ведомствах. Точнее, в «светлых» головах чиновников, задача которых как раз и состоит в том, чтобы Вашингтон почаще кусал локти, завидуя безоблачной жизни россиян.
Обеспечить поводы для такой зависти у отечественных управленцев пока не получается. Даже несмотря на то, что козыри, то есть дорожающая нефть, сами идут им в руки. Баррель потихоньку подбирается к $90. Достигнув этой планки, «бочка» нацелится на высоту в $100. Крупнейшие нефтяные трейдеры, которые зарабатывают миллиарды долларов не на добыче «черного золота», а на его перепродаже на бирже, прогнозируют, что к новому году эта планка будет взята. США сами толкают рынок к таким котировкам. С одной стороны, американский президент Дональд Трамп рвет на себе волосы и призывает ОПЕК сбить ценовой восторг производителей сырья, с другой — Вашингтон перекрывает нефтяную трубу из Ирана и отказывается от поставок «черного золота» в Китай, что подогревает стоимость «бочки» почище, чем война в Персидском заливе. Казалось бы, если баррель летит к $100, то доллар должен пасть до 45 рублей. Только вряд ли мы такой курс увидим. Тогда как «зеленый» за 70–80 рублей вполне вероятен.
Парадокса в этом не стоит усматривать. Нефть давно не оказывает поддержку рублю. Вернее, оказывает, но слабую и неполноценную. Россия, время от времени занимающая первое место среди мировых добытчиков сырья, довольно странно использует нефтяные сверхдоходы. Вместо того чтобы закрывать ими текущие прорехи экономики и вкладываться в ее развитие, наше правительство предпочитает наполнять резервную кубышку. Каждый цент, полученный сверх установленной в бюджете цены в $40 за баррель, уходит в Фонд национального благосостояния (ФНБ). Сейчас нефть стоит вдвое дороже этой ценовой отсечки. В сентябре Россия заработала на экспорте нефти примерно $12 млрд, половина которых была отправлена в загашник.
Вроде бы можно только радоваться: когда на черный день отложена такая сумма, завтрашний день уже не выглядит черным. Только на что эти деньги предполагается тратить? Строительство инфраструктуры, оборонку, бездомных детей? Ответов несколько, только все они не особенно радуют.
Минэкономразвития предлагает инвестировать средства ФНБ за рубежом. Глава этого ведомства Максим Орешкин, как говорят источники, заручился поддержкой президента Владимира Путина. Отличная идея. Министр фактически подтверждает, что на родине ловить нечего, а за бугром можно отхватить лишнюю копеечку. Только за нее придется заплатить, причем не отечественным банкам, а иностранцам. Накопленные деньги будут лежать на зарубежных счетах — там и проценты повыше, и надежность подтверждена вековой историей. Правда, работать эти вложения будут, скорее, не на родные пенаты, а на финансистов из стран, предъявивших России санкции.
Кстати, «крайний случай», когда придется разбить копилку, судя по всему, скоро наступит. Ежемесячный объем поступлений в казну валюты в рамках бюджетного правила уже доходит до $7 млрд. Это позволило накопить около $25 млрд резервных средств. Ранее правительство клялось, что не будет до конца года проводить валютные интервенции. «Дополнительные предложения валюты поступят при отсутствии покупок ЦБ», — сказал на днях Орешкин.
Эта фраза, выглядящая странной, приобрела смысл. Сначала было похоже на «казнить нельзя помиловать». Ставить запятую оставалось читателю. Теперь запятая поставлена — слухи о закупках валюты по относительно низким ценам (тот же Орешкин прогнозировал, что «зеленый» упадет до 60 рублей) подтвердились. В октябре-ноябре Минфин готов потратить на эти цели рекордные 480 млрд рублей дополнительных доходов от нефти. Другими словами, средства, заработанные на дорогом сырье, подогреют ценность доллара. Похоже на сентенцию Остапа Бендера: «Старые вещи покупаем, новые крадем». Логика железная, но проржавевшая.
По словам министра энергетики Александра Новака, Россия способна нарастить добычу нефти на 200–300 тыс. баррелей в сутки. Эти поставки за рубеж будут приносить от $17 млн до 25 млн в день ($500–750 млн в год). Вопрос использования этих средств сводится только к целесообразности: либо поддержим рубль, что действительно послужит на благо национального благосостояния, тогда и НДС с 18 до 20% увеличивать не надо, либо переложим в валюту или отправим за рубеж, чем сыграем на руку западным злопыхателям, от санкций которых правительство, по идее, пытается нас защитить.
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